AHL, Worcester Sharks await lockout fallout

Anyone who says that he or she has an idea of what the American Hockey League landscape will look like after the NHL gets going again has proven just one thing.

That he or she has no idea what’s going on.

Some AHL teams will lose a lot. Some will lose just a little. Every roster will be affected, and at first glance, it seems possible that change may be biblical.

As in, the last shall be first.

There is some logic to that. The best teams have the best AHL players. The best AHL players are the ones most likely to stick once the NHL resumes. There are good ECHL players who will come up and be competitive, but there is no way to replace losses from the top five or so roster spots.

This has happened before, so there is some precedent as to what might happen this time. That “before” was Worcester’s first season in the AHL, 1994-95, and the circumstances were almost identical. The NHL began the season in lockout, it ended in mid-January, and the NHL commenced a 48-game season on Jan. 11.

That was the same as this time. What was different is that the 1994-95 IceCats were unaffiliated. They had only a handful of loaners from the NHL, and nobody got called up when the lockout ended.

The result of the NHL resuming play?

Virtually nothing changed throughout the AHL. It was a 16-team league then with three divisions, 12 teams making the playoffs. Every team leading its division when the lockout ended in January — the Albany River Rats, the Prince Edward Island Senators and the Binghamton Rangers — was still in first place when the season ended in April.

Only one team that would have made the playoffs in mid-January wound up out of postseason play — Syracuse was leapfrogged by Hershey. Worcester was 12-28-2 during the lockout, 12-23-3 after.

Albany, which had Sharks goalie coach Corey Schwab in net and won the Calder Cup, was 23-8-8 during the lockout, 23-9-9 after. The only two teams that saw serious changes in their fortunes were Syracuse, which sunk, and PEI, which was 19-21-3 during the lockout and 22-10-5 after.

But that happens to a couple of teams every year, lockout or not, in the AHL.

One time isn’t much to go on, but it’s all anyone has to go on since the last NHL lockout wiped out an entire season. If the lesson of 1994-95 says anything, it’s that while the names and faces on AHL rosters may change, the balance of power may not.

Of most immediate concern hereabouts is what will happen with the Sharks — and, in a broader sense, the Atlantic Division. A preliminary educated guess on who is going to San Jose for camp will provide an “ouch” moment for their fans. Who will not be coming back is, in the long run, what is most important.

Chances are that James Sheppard won’t be back. He has been Worcester’s best player for the past month and will arrive at San Jose’s camp healthy, confident and in peak form. He may have needed some AHL time when he was with the Minnesota Wild that he did not get. Sheppard has it now and probably is done with this level for good.

Frazer McLaren looks like he’s ready to make the transition to full-time NHL forward. In the last few weeks, he has made the most of his increased ice time to make the jump from just a tough guy to a solid forward who can fight. These days, how valuable is a winger who can fight the other team’s heavyweights and also serve as one of your best penalty killers?

Matt Irwin has been up a couple of times, but still hasn’t made his NHL debut. That should change. The fact that he was a healthy scratch in a four-point game in Portland on Tuesday night says something about San Jose’s plans for him.

Worcester also could lose John McCarthy, whose offensive production has been disappointing to date, but is a valuable two-way player. McCarthy takes things seriously, so going someplace where the “C” is off his jersey might relax him a bit.

That would be a lot for the Sharks to lose, but they won’t be the only team getting hurt. Providence would hate to lose Chris Bourque. Manchester, which never has really seemed to get rolling, could be without Slava Voynov, Andrei Loktionov, Dwight King and Jordan Nolan.

Worcester hasn’t played Springfield yet, but from a distance, the Falcons look like they could be cleaned out.

The Sharks would accept status quo for the “new” season. They may get it, even with the roster upheaval, depending on what everybody else has to deal with.

That is exactly the way it was the last time this happened, which also happened to be Worcester’s first season in the AHL.

Questions:

1. Who is the tallest goalie to play for the Sharks?

2. Which of the 50 states has produced the most Calder Cup championship teams?

3. Who was the losing goalie when the IceCats beat Providence, 11-0, on Nov. 30, 2002?

Answers below.

Worcester gets its first look at Springfield Friday night at the DCU Center, not knowing who the Falcons will have for players. Springfield used to come to town as often as Providence, but this will be the first game between the Sharks and Falcons since April 1, 2012. … Same time next year? Brodie Reid has scored two goals in a game twice in his AHL career. Most recently, he did it in Portland on Tuesday night, which was Jan. 8, 2013. The other time was on Jan. 8, 2012. … Pirates goalie Mark Visentin, whom Worcester has been successful against this season, is the Player of the Week. He stopped 87 of 89 shots in winning two games for Portland. … Oklahoma City defenseman Justin Schultz, if he doesn’t wind up in Edmonton now that the NHL is back in business, could have an historic, but probably not unprecedented, season. Schultz is plus-42 after 34 games. He has 42 more points (48) than penalty minutes (six).

Catching up with…

Eleven days ago, for the first time in 12 years, Graham Mink got to celebrate New Year’s Eve in his hometown of Stowe, Vt. “That was a positive,” Mink said of his hockey hiatus, which he hopes will be ending very soon.

The former Sharks captain, who is near the top of most franchise all-time lists, has spent the fall and winter in Stowe with his wife and two children. Mink has gotten his insurance license and can work in the family business. He also has had a real estate license for several years, so he’s busy.

He’d like to put off being a white-collar guy for a while, though.

“I think I’ve got at least two, maybe three more good seasons left in me,” Mink said. “I feel good, both physically and mentally. With everything that’s going on right now, I’m hoping somebody will show some interest.”

Mink, who played for Hershey last season, has been skating and playing in a men’s league in Stowe. He has considered Europe but will go only if the money is right. Otherwise, he said, “I’d be going for selfish reasons; it would not be the best thing for my family.”

During his two seasons with the Sharks, Mink battled back from a sports hernia injury and credited trainer Matt White for helping keep his career going.

“I owe Whitey a debt of gratitude,” Mink said. “The rehab program he designed for me was exactly what I needed to get stronger and break up the scar tissue so I could continue playing.”

And if the phone rings with the right offer, Mink would like to continue playing even more.

1. Gerald Coleman, who got into a handful of games during the 2008-09 season, stands 6-foot-5.

2. New York has produced 18 Calder Cup winners. That includes six from Rochester, five from Buffalo, four from Glens Falls, and one each from Binghamton, Albany and Syracuse.

3. Tim Thomas was the starting goalie that night for Providence and gave up the first five goals, then Andrew Raycroft gave up four before Thomas returned and was scored on twice more.